The US Housing Affordability Crisis in Numbers: An Index Analysis from 2019 to 2026

The median price of a home sold in the United States in 2025 was approximately $410,800, up 27% from the same measure in 2019 before the pandemic reshaped housing markets. Mortgage rates, which bottomed near 2.65% in January 2021, averaged 6.6% through 2025 and are projected to average approximately 6.3% in 2026. The combined effect of higher prices and higher rates has pushed the NAR Housing Affordability Index to a level 35% below its pre-COVID baseline — meaning that relative to incomes, housing is roughly one-third less affordable than it was six years ago.

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The Income-Price Gap

Affordability is a function of three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and household income. Prices rose 27% since 2019. Rates nearly doubled. Incomes grew, but not enough to offset both. The result is a monthly payment for the median home that has increased by approximately 60-70% since 2019 — far outpacing the 20-25% growth in median household income over the same period.

The 2026 projections offer modest improvement. Mortgage rates are expected to average 6.3%, down from 6.6% in 2025. Home prices are projected to rise 0-4% depending on the forecaster — with J.P. Morgan projecting 0% nationally and NAR projecting 2-4%. Incomes are expected to continue growing at 3-4%. The net effect: affordability improves for the first time since 2020, but modestly. Monthly payments may decline slightly — the first improvement in six years — but the affordability index remains far below historical norms.

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Regional Divergence

The national affordability picture masks significant regional variation. In the South and West, where construction has been more active and inventory has risen to 50% above pre-pandemic levels in some metros, prices face downward pressure and affordability is improving faster. In the Northeast and Midwest, where inventory remains tight and construction has lagged, prices continue to rise 3-4% and affordability improvement is minimal.

This divergence is reshaping migration patterns. Northeastern and Midwestern metros — Hartford, Rochester, Worcester, Columbus, Indianapolis, Kansas City — now dominate Realtor.com's annual ranking of top housing markets for 2026, displacing the Southern and Western cities that led in prior years. The shift reflects relative affordability: buyers are gravitating toward markets where their income stretches furthest, even if those markets are smaller and less traditionally "hot."